Football picks ATS: Don’t expect another Chiefs-Bills thriller

Football picks ATS: Don’t expect another Chiefs-Bills thriller

The Chiefs have lost two home games, but I’m not putting money on a visitor to win at Arrowhead when their only road win was Sept. 24 vs. the Commanders.

Todd Lisenbee

By Todd Lisenbee

| Dec 7, 2023, 11:00am CST

Todd Lisenbee

By Todd Lisenbee

Dec 7, 2023, 11:00am CST

I finished off strong with a 6-1 championship weekend, and now we turn our attention to the NFL, as it finally becomes meaningful to peek at the playoff race in each conference. As opposed to just picking a few random games, I thought I would give you the games that involve two teams with a .500 or better record, which means two teams still in the playoff hunt. 

This week, there are seven of those games, including what should be a great Sunday night clash between Philadelphia and Dallas.

But of course, we stand and salute, and we start with Army-Navy.

Last week: 6-1

This year: 80-66

Army (-2.5) vs. Navy, 2 p.m. Saturday: I would never place actual money on this game, because I don’t want to have any reason to be upset at any of the young men playing. My only problem is that I feel like this game has to be played in the snow. I think this game should move based on where the snow is going to be on the second Saturday in December. (The Foxborough forecast for Saturday calls for partly sunny skies and highs in the 50s.) I guess if I have to make a pick, I’ll take the underdog. Pick: Navy +2.5

Jaguars at Browns (-3), 12 p.m. Sunday: Joe Flacco vs. CJ Beathard is the quarterback matchup we never thought we’d see this year, especially in a game between two over .500 teams, but here we are. In these situations, I look at the running game. Pick: Jaguars +3

Rams at Ravens (-7.5), 12 p.m. Sunday: The Rams come in with three straight wins, but are 1-2 this season playing in the early Sunday window. The Ravens have won four games at home. In three of those games, they held the opposition in single digits. I expect them to win and perhaps do it again this weekend. Pick: Ravens -7.5

Colts (-1.5) at Bengals, 12 p.m. Sunday: The Colts are one of the NFL’s hottest teams, winners of their last four both straight up and against the spread. Those streaks don’t last forever, and this is exactly the kind of experienced team that you don’t want to face down the stretch. There’s a reason this line has moved from 2.5 down to 1.5, and I’m with the public on this one. Pick: Bengals +1.5

Seahawks at 49ers (-10.5), 3:05 p.m. Sunday: If you lay the points and bet on the 49ers, you have to be insanely confident about how good this team is. Double-digit favorites in division games are hard to bet on, and the 49ers fit that bill. The Seahawks may be losers of four of their last five, but in their last two road losses, they’ve been competitive and covered in both games. With all that said, I’m insanely confident that San Francisco is the best team in the league. Pick: 49ers -10.5

Bills at Chiefs (-1.5), 3:25 p.m. Sunday: This line opened with Kansas City as three-point favorites and has been cut in half by money coming in on Buffalo. The Chiefs offense looks a little stuck in a rut right now, but I didn’t think they played that poorly on Sunday night against Green Bay. My Packers made a few more plays (and a fortunate missed penalty), but for the most part, the Chiefs had success offensively. The Chiefs have lost two games at home this season. I’m not putting money on a team whose only road win was against the Commanders over two months ago to win at Arrowhead. Pick: Chiefs -1.5

Eagles at Cowboys (-2.5), 7:20 p.m. Sunday: Vegas expects this to be the highest-scoring game of the weekend, with a total of 51.5. The Eagles are smack dab in the middle of a murderer’s row of a schedule and now they have to travel to Dallas. The Cowboys are 6-0 this season at home and averaging 41 points per game in those six wins. Throw into the mix that the home team has covered nine of the last 10 in this series. Pick: Cowboys -2.5

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Todd Lisenbee is the host of The Todd Pod with Todd Lisenbee on the Sellout Crowd network. He has been a producer/talk show host at WWLS, The Sports Animal and 107.7 The Franchise during a Oklahoma broadcasting career that spans to 2002. Todd has broadcast high school basketball, football and soccer play-by-play since 2003 and is currently the voice of the UCO Bronchos, a role he has been in since 2018. He can be reached at @ToddOnSports on Twitter/X or Instagram or via email at [email protected].

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