Todd’s college football Week 6 ATS: Red River runaway

Todd’s college football Week 6 ATS: Red River runaway

Oklahoma deserves credit for its defense in the second half of games, but one half of average defensive football against Texas team could be a back-breaker.

Todd Lisenbee

By Todd Lisenbee

| Oct 5, 2023, 10:42pm CDT

Todd Lisenbee

By Todd Lisenbee

Oct 5, 2023, 10:42pm CDT

(Editor’s note: Sellout Crowd’s coverage of the Oklahoma-Texas game in Dallas is Sponsored by Modelo – The Official Beer of Fans with the Fighting Spirit (https://www.modelousa.com))

Last week: 8-2

This season: 29-32

Well, well, well. Look who had himself a winning weekend. I could’ve been 9-1 without a UCF choke.

Here’s hoping the luck continues as I travel through Kansas with UCO football this weekend and lay a little money on these picks.

Kansas State (-11.5) at Oklahoma State, 6:30 p.m. Friday: The eye in the sky will be on the Alan Bowman project in Stillwater, and yes, you can hear the game on Sirius.

Forecasting how a team is going to play after a bye week is hard. Forecasting how both teams are going to play after a bye week is near impossible. Knowing what the atmosphere will be for a 2-2 team coming back home is hard. Knowing how it will be on a Friday night is near impossible. I honestly have no idea what to expect.

It’s hard to get South Alabama dominating the Cowboys out of my head, but I’m the idiot that the sportsbooks prey on. Pick: Oklahoma State +11.5 — KState wins 31-23.

No. 12 Oklahoma vs. No. 3 Texas (-6.5), 11 a.m. Saturday (Dallas, TX): All’s right with the world when this game has national meaning. As I mentioned on The Lederman Jacket, Oklahoma deserves credit for its defense in the second half of games, but one half of even average defensive football against this Texas team could be a back-breaker.

That said, big plays and big momentum swings mean more in a Red River Shootout than in nearly any other sporting arena. Between a receiving corps that has been incredible and a defensive backfield that has ball hawked, Oklahoma has made plenty of big plays already. But the Sooners can only continue to do so if the foundations are good on the offensive and defensive lines.

That’s where Texas wins the game. That’s where Texas is more battle tested. That’s why I like the Longhorns by a good chunk. Pick: Texas -6.5 — Longhorns win 38-17.

UCF at Kansas (-2.5), 3 p.m. Saturday: Two teams that were beaten in two different ways last weekend. Kansas was dominated by Texas, but somehow was still in the game late in the third, and UCF blew a 35-7 lead, losing a game it dominated for three quarters. I’ve got to think that how UCF lost is going to be tougher to rebound from. Pick: Kansas -2.5

Texas Tech (-1.5) at Baylor, 7 p.m. Saturday: If I’m going to think that UCF will struggle to rebound from their blown lead against Baylor last weekend, I’ve got to also think that Baylor will use the win to gain some momentum. Pick: Baylor +1.5

TCU (-6.5) at Iowa State, 7 p.m. Saturday: Iowa State is well coached enough to win games against the bottom half of the Big 12, but TCU still has much more talent on the sidelines than the Cyclones. Since the Colorado loss, Chandler Morris has thrown for nine touchdowns to just one interception. Could be a big day for the former Sooner quarterback. Pick: TCU -6.5

Tulsa at Florida Atlantic (-3.5), 5 p.m. Saturday: I’m bummed that we don’t get to watch Oklahoma native Casey Thompson at FAU. Thompson suffered a Week 3 ACL tear against Clemson. Meanwhile, I’m buying what Kevin Wilson is selling with the ‘Cane. Pick: Tulsa +3.5

No. 23 LSU (-5.5) at No. 21 Missouri, 11 a.m. Saturday: It’s tough to win in a big atmosphere with a bad defense. LSU’s defense is bad and the atmosphere at Faurot Field should be mental. Mizzou can get to 6-0 for the first time since 2013, when they played for the SEC Championship. Pick: Missouri +5.5

No. 20 Kentucky at No. 1 Georgia (-14.5), 6 p.m. Saturday: Georgia gives me the vibes of a team that is going to win a lot of close games. It’s a damn tough task to win between the hedges, but Kentucky will keep it close enough. Pick: Kentucky +14.5

No. 10 Notre Dame (-6.5) at No. 25 Louisville, 6:30 p.m. Saturday: This is the third game of a brutal four game stretch for the Irish. Next week against USC is way too big to not expect some looking ahead from the Golden Domers. Pick: Louisville +6.5

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Todd Lisenbee is the host of The Todd Pod with Todd Lisenbee on the Sellout Crowd network. He has been a producer/talk show host at WWLS, The Sports Animal and 107.7 The Franchise during a Oklahoma broadcasting career that spans to 2002. Todd has broadcast high school basketball, football and soccer play-by-play since 2003 and is currently the voice of the UCO Bronchos, a role he has been in since 2018. He can be reached at @ToddOnSports on Twitter/X or Instagram or via email at [email protected].

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