This week’s Eight for OKC examines why the Cowgirls might have to go on the road to get back to the Women’s College World Series.

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Oklahoma State ranks highly on the list of teams capable of making the Women’s College World Series.

The Cowgirls check a lot of the necessary boxes: elite pitching, potent offense, stout defense, veteran leadership, exemplary coaching, postseason history.

But to get to Oklahoma City, the Cowgirls might have to go on the road.

Even though OSU is a consensus top-five pick in the national rankings — it is fourth in all four major polls — it is the Cowgirls’ ranking in the college softball RPI that is problematic. The rating percentage index, which combines wins, losses and strength of schedule, is a major factor in the NCAA selection committee’s process.

OSU’s rank: 12th.

That’s according to D1Softball.com at midday Tuesday.

Obviously, the selection committee isn’t making its picks today. The bracket won’t be revealed for another couple of weeks, and the regional and super regional sites won’t be determined until after a bunch more games are played. So, teams can move up and down a lot.

But as our Eight for OKC starts to come into sharper focus, the Cowgirls have work to do if they want to be one of the top eight seeds and want to have a chance to play in Stillwater for the first two weeks of the NCAA Tournament.

Their RPI being eight spots lower than their national ranking comes down to two things: strength of schedule and losses to quad-three teams (those ranked 51-100).

OSU’s strength of schedule is 44th, the lowest ranking among the top 25 teams in RPI. 

Worse, only two other teams had a strength-of-schedule ranking lower than 27th, OU at 32nd and Virginia Tech at 43rd. That means a strength of schedule in the 40s really stands out.

What’s more, the Cowgirls have played 11 quad-four teams (those ranked 101-200). That’s nearly a quarter of all of their games. The most quad-four teams played by any team with an RPI ranked ahead of OSU is nine by Georgia, but the Bulldogs offset that by having played 25 quad-one games (teams ranked 1-25). 

The Cowgirls have 11 quad-one games.

The strength-of-schedule conundrum is likely why OSU announced earlier this week that it was canceling a May 1 game against UT-Arlington. That would be another quad-four opponent, so even if the Cowgirls win 50-0, that game would hurt their strength of schedule and ultimately their RPI.

(Side note: OSU isn’t the only program that is canceling late-season games that could hurt its RPI. Texas A&M, for example, canceled a mid-week game against Texas A&M-Commerce.)

OSU will get a boost in strength of schedule with its regular-season-ending series next week against OU, then with a deep run in the Big 12 T

Getting wins against some of those quad-one teams will be important to OSU’s hopes of hosting a super regional. Such wins would help offset the four losses the Cowgirls have had to quad-three teams.

No team ranked ahead of OSU in the RPI has any more than two losses against teams that are quad three or lower.

OSU’s quad-three losses have been against Tulsa, BYU and Iowa State (twice). The Cowgirls can’t go back and change any of those losses, though something like BYU beating OU might help change the perception of that loss a bit. The best thing OSU can do is get as many quad-one wins as possible to offset those losses.

That, in part, is why we have seen Cowgirl coach Kenny Gajewski leaning almost exclusively on Lexi Kilfoyl and Ivy Rosenberry. Since the loss to BYU on March 22, OSU’s best two pitchers have thrown all but 14 innings over the past 17 games. Kilfoyl has thrown 49 innings, Rosenberry 44.1 innings.

Now, it hasn’t always worked. Kilfoyl and Rosenberry both suffered losses against Iowa State.

Still, the strategy is clear: Gajewski and the Cowgirls are doing whatever they can to give themselves the best chance of winning.

Now, RPI and strength of schedule aren’t the only factors in the selection committee’s decisions. That means it’s entirely possible OSU could stay in a similar position to where it is today and still be granted a regional and a super regional. Such a thing wouldn’t be a complete surprise.

But neither would OSU being given a regional but not a super regional. Even though that wouldn’t be ideal, the Cowgirls could take solace in the fact they’ve won 17 road games this season.

No team ahead of them in the RPI has won more.

Player praise

The name Karli Spaid might resonate with OU softball fans.

The Miami (Ohio) slugger hit the first home run at Love’s Field earlier this season, a distinction she will hold forever instead of Tiare Jennings or Jayda Coleman, Kinzie Hansen or Alyssa Brito.

And now, Spaid is trying to best another Sooner.

She currently is third all-time in major-college softball history for career home runs with 94. She is just one behind legendary Sooner slugger Lauren Chamberlain, so her next bomb will tie Chamberlain. Two more, and Spaid will vault into the No. 2 spot.

Barring weather cancellations, Miami (Ohio) has a minimum of 10 games remaining on its schedule, but with a deep run in the conference tournament and an expectation that the Redhawks will make the NCAA Tournament, Spaid likely will have an extra half dozen or more.

Since she hits a homer on average every game and a half — she has a nation-best 27 homers in 43 games this season — Spaid should blow past Chamberlain.

For reference, Chamberlain hit 95 homers in 220 career games.

Spaid has 94 in 210 games.

While Spaid is likely to bypass one Sooner, there’s another whose record seems safe from pretty much anyone. Jocelyn Alo is the all-time home run queen with 122 blasts.

Look out for …

Losing four of your first seven games of the season isn’t unheard of — but it sure doesn’t happen very often at UCLA.

But since losing to Georgia on Feb. 16, the Bruins have won 20 of 25 games and now have arguably the most impressive series sweep of any team in college softball this season. They went to Stanford last weekend and swept the Cardinal.

UCLA won two games by shutout and outscored Stanford 12-3.

What’s more, the Bruins beat Cardinal ace and national-player-of-the-year favorite NiJaree Canady twice.

Remember this name: Taylor Tinsley.

The UCLA sophomore could be the next great Bruin pitcher.

Props go to …

The past couple of weeks, we’ve seen some unexpected teams win conference series against top-five teams.

Two weekends ago, it was Iowa State taking two of three from OSU.

This past weekend, Virginia won a couple against Duke and nearly swept the series, falling just short in a 12-inning marathon.

While Iowa State won’t make the NCAA Tournament unless it wins the Big 12 Tournament, Virginia has a chance to make the field for the first time since 2010. The Cavaliers have a capable offense, but their pitching staff is four deep. 

And a couple of the arms were rarely used last season. Madison Harris only pitched two total innings a year ago while Mikayla Houge threw just 4.1 innings. Now, along with Eden Bigham and Courtney Layne, they are Virginia’s strength.

OSU needs a new softball stadium, but if you gave Kenny Gajewski $20 million, he might not spend it on a stadium. That's the new reality of NCAA sports. https://t.co/OuoERlbmgU

— Berry Tramel (@BerryTramel) April 12, 2024

Eight for OKC

Remember, the Eight for OKC ranking looks at the teams that have shown themselves most likely to make the Women’s College World Series. (Records through Sunday)

1. OU (42-4): Yes, yes, I know that the Sooners have flaws. The talent on their pitching staff isn’t as deep as the past few years. The timely hits aren’t always there, resulting in a lot of runners left on base. But OU still has the fewest losses of any team in the country, and when it comes to the postseason, no program knows better how to get to OKC.

2. Texas (38-6): Citaly Gutierrez and Estelle Czech have been formidable in the circle. The offense puts a ton of pressure on defenses with its speed and power, but having a couple of pitchers who are able to dominate gives the Longhorns a huge advantage in the postseason.

3. Tennessee (34-8): Neither Payton Gottshall nor Karlyn Pickens is the best pitcher in college softball. But together? The duo is extremely potent for the Vols. Gottshall nearly pitched a perfect game against LSU this past weekend, then the two combined for a shutout to win the series with Pickens throwing six innings and Gottshall picking up the final inning in relief.

4. OSU (39-8): You might notice a trend here, but the Cowgirls also have two outstanding pitchers. Kilfoyl and Rosenberry both rank in the top 25 nationally for ERA. The only other teams that can say that? Tennessee and Duke. Speaking of the Blue Devils …

5. Duke (39-6): Yes, the Blue Devils’ series loss to Virginia was a head scratcher, much like OSU’s series loss to Iowa State. But there’s much to like about Duke. Pitchers Jala Wright and Cassidy Curd are outstanding, and slugger Claire Davidson is tough, hitting .444 and ranking fifth nationally with 59 RBI.

6. Stanford (36-10): Even though the Cardinal got swept by UCLA, NiJaree Canady isn’t going to get beat twice in the same weekend by most teams. The Stanford ace is still a handful, but the Cardinal bats need to get going. They managed only three runs against the Bruins.

7. UCLA (27-9): The Bruins are about more than their sweep of Stanford. They are arguably the hottest team in the country. There are lots of reasons for that, but Taylor Tinsley is at the top of the list. The sophomore righty has allowed only four earned runs in her last eight appearances and has a 0.73 ERA over that stretch.

8. Texas A&M (37-9): The Aggies don’t have a ton of players who rank highly individually nationally. What they do have is lots of wins of late. They’ve won 9 of 11 games in April, including a series win against Kentucky and a sweep of Ole Miss. Finding ways to win this time of year is no small thing.

First out: Georgia (36-11): The Bulldogs still have a sky-high RPI despite double-digit losses, so that tells you how tough a schedule they’ve played. But they’ve also lost three of their last four SEC series. That’s a wee bit troublesome.

Others in consideration: LSU (35-10), Arkansas (32-12), Washington (30-8), Missouri (35-13), Florida (37-10).